The conflict between the United States and Iran has incurred significant financial costs for the US military, with defense officials reporting over $11.3 billion spent in the first six days alone [1]. Concurrently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the ongoing Middle East war is causing the “largest supply disruption in history” for oil markets, primarily due to Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [9].
What Happened
- US defense officials informed senators that the war with Iran cost more than $11.3 billion during its initial six days, a figure first reported by The New York Times based on sources familiar with a closed-door briefing [1].
- Iran issued its first public message attributed to its new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, via state television, asserting its commitment to keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed and continuing attacks on US assets in the region [12].
- The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that the Middle East war is creating the “largest supply disruption in the history of oil markets,” with Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz preventing the production and shipment of millions of barrels of crude daily [9]. This disruption is considered more severe than those following the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the 2022 conflict in Ukraine [9].
- The UK's Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has “put on notice” fuel retailers, indicating increased monitoring of pump prices to prevent profiteering amid rising wholesale costs driven by the US war with Iran [3].
- US President Donald Trump commented that rising oil prices benefit the United States, stating, “when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money” [14]. This statement came as the average price for a gallon of gas in the US reached $3.60, a week after the start of the US-Israel military operation against Iran [14].
- A British tourist is among 20 individuals charged in Dubai under UAE cybercrime laws for filming and sharing content related to Iranian missile strikes [8]. These laws prohibit sharing material that could disturb public security, with potential penalties including jail time and deportation [8].
Why It Matters
The reported initial cost of the conflict, exceeding $11.3 billion for the US in less than a week [1], underscores the immediate financial burden of military operations and suggests a rapid expenditure rate that could strain defense budgets if sustained. This figure provides a concrete measure of the direct economic impact on the US, separate from broader market disruptions.
Iran's public declaration, attributed to its new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to maintain the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and continue targeting US assets [12], signals a hardening of its strategic posture. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global chokepoint for oil shipments, and its sustained closure, as warned by the IEA, represents a direct threat to global energy security and trade [9]. This stance indicates a potential for prolonged confrontation and heightened risk to maritime commerce.
The IEA's assessment of the conflict causing the “largest supply disruption in the history of oil markets” [9] highlights the severe global economic implications. Such a disruption, surpassing previous crises, could lead to sustained high energy prices, impacting inflation, consumer spending, and industrial output worldwide. The UK regulator's warning against fuel profiteering [3] reflects immediate concerns about the pass-through effects of these wholesale price increases to consumers.
President Trump's framing of rising oil prices as beneficial to the US [14] reflects a domestic political calculation, potentially aimed at mitigating public concern over increasing gas prices. However, the broader economic consequences of historic oil market disruption [9] and the direct costs of military engagement [1] present complex challenges for both US domestic policy and international economic stability.
Signals To Watch (Next 72 Hours)
- Further statements or actions from Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz or attacks on US assets, particularly any direct confirmation or visual evidence of Mojtaba Khamenei's leadership [12].
- Updates from the US Department of Defense or congressional sources regarding the ongoing financial costs of the Iran conflict [1].
- International Energy Agency (IEA) or other energy market analyses on the immediate impact of the Strait of Hormuz situation on global oil supply and prices [9].
- Reports from the UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) on specific actions taken against fuel retailers accused of profiteering [3].
- Any diplomatic or military responses from the US or its allies to Iran's stated intentions regarding the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on US assets [12].
- Developments regarding the 20 individuals charged in Dubai for filming Iranian missile strikes, particularly any details on their legal proceedings or diplomatic interventions [8].
The immediate trajectory of the US-Iran conflict will be shaped by military expenditures, energy market stability, and the clarity of Iranian leadership.
Sources
- Trump claims surging oil prices benefit US as Pentagon reportedly tells lawmakers Iran war cost $11.3bn in first week – live — Guardian World · Mar 12, 2026
- CMA puts UK fuel retailers ‘on notice’ over profiteering from Iran war — Guardian World · Mar 12, 2026
- British tourist among 20 charged in Dubai over videos of Iranian missile strikes — Guardian World · Mar 12, 2026
- Middle East war creating ‘largest supply disruption in the history of oil markets’ — Guardian World · Mar 12, 2026
- Iran vows to fight on in first message issued in name of Mojtaba Khamenei — Guardian World · Mar 12, 2026
- ‘We make a lot of money’: Trump downplays rise in gas prices during Iran war — Guardian World · Mar 12, 2026